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Adaptive Behavior
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Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Commons Dilemma Experiments

Marco A. Janssen

School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Marco.Janssen{at}asu.edu, Center for the Study of Institutional Diversity, Arizona State University

Nicholas P. Radtke

Center for the Study of Institutional Diversity, Arizona State University, School of Computing and Informatics, Arizona State University

Allen Lee

School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Center for the Study of Institutional Diversity, Arizona State University

A major challenge in the development of computational models of collective behavior is the empirical validation. Experimental data from a spatially explicit dynamic commons dilemma experiment is used to empirically ground an agent-based model. Three distinct patterns are identified in the data. Two naïve models, random walk and greedy agents, do not produce data that match the patterns. A more comprehensive model is presented that explains how participants make movement and harvest decisions. Using pattern-oriented modeling the parameter space is explored to identify the parameter combinations that meet the three identified patterns. Less than 0.1% of the parameter combinations meet all the patterns. These parameter settings were used to successfully predict the patterns of a new set of experiments.

Key Words: empirically grounded agent-based modeling • commons dilemma • individual decision making • human experiments

This version was published on December 1, 2009

Adaptive Behavior, Vol. 17, No. 6, 508-523 (2009)
DOI: 10.1177/1059712309342488


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